![]() Simulated post-LGM shifts roughly match expectations based on preliminary phylogenetic information, further supporting the attribution of current population declines to anthropogenic climate change drivers. By 2070, suitable bioclimatic space is projected to expand further eastward into the summer rainfall region of South Africa, and contract in its equatorward reaches. During the Pleistocene/mid-Holocene climate transition period, the species’ range is predicted to have expanded significantly polewards at an average rate of 0.4 km per decade, assuming constant tracking of its optimal climatic niche. dichotomum was simulated to be restricted to the equatorward part of its current range. ![]() ![]() During the LGM, suitable bioclimatic space for A. Ensemble modelling of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current, and projected 2070 time periods simulates a paleo-historical poleward expansion of suitable bioclimatic space for this species under natural climate change post-LGM, and projects an eastward shift towards 2070. dichotomum under changing climate using species distribution models (SDMs) to provide a broader perspective on its range dynamics. We simulated the paleo- and future geographic range of A. Apparent recent range contraction in the Quiver Tree ( Aloidendron dichotomum (Masson) Klopper and Gideon F.Sm) has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but this has been challenged. Species paleo-range projections are emerging as a means to broaden understanding of range shifts and could be applied to assist in attribution. 2Institute for Communities and Wildlife in Africa, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South AfricaĬoncerns have been raised about attribution of species range shifts to anthropogenic climate change.1Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.Brodie 1 Kerry-Anne Grey 1* Jacqueline M. The work by the team represents the first long-term study of tropical cyclone drift and its possible impact on population centers on the edges of storm activity.Lara P. They suggest people in those areas need to start making mitigation preparations, as they will likely be exposed to such threats in the future. They note such a migration is likely to have a major impact on areas that are situated at the edge of past tropical cyclone activity. The researchers found evidence of tree damage creeping north starting after the 1920s. They then compared the rings with records kept of cyclones in the area. In all, the team looked at ring samples from 54 species of trees that showed evidence of tropical cyclones over the past century. The researchers refer to these events as canopy disturbances. Prior research has shown that when cyclones make their way onshore, the impact on surviving trees in the vicinity is reflected in their tree rings. To learn more about the history of tropical cyclones in Asia, the researchers collected tree ring samples from sites along the southern coast of South Korea to parts of Russia. ![]() Work in this area is necessary, they argue, to expedite mitigation practices in areas likely to be impacted in the future. The researchers note that little work has been done to investigate the long-term variability of tropical cyclones and their possible impacts on human population centers in the future. ![]() In this new effort, the researchers have found evidence that backs up such suggestions. Some evidence has suggested that one such change is likely to be the migration of tropical storms toward the poles. Prior research has suggested that global warming is causing the tropics to widen, leading to changes in weather patterns. ![]()
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